Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 12.494496 15.299124 18.424273 22.141653 26.419008 31.162544 36.795983
2025-12-07 8.218706 11.714680 16.058217 21.749946 28.903079 37.484001 48.435290
2025-12-14 6.088393 9.818769 14.868303 21.982393 31.505465 43.562815 59.703481
2025-12-21 4.330196 7.883918 13.104413 20.963529 32.086266 46.834345 67.378571
2025-12-28 3.492469 7.052440 12.650074 21.536596 34.669233 52.701872 78.574114
2026-01-04 2.799209 6.263220 12.079914 21.784761 36.703558 57.838386 88.957739
2026-01-11 2.296363 5.668822 11.690645 22.201212 38.933155 63.289053 99.956881
2026-01-18 1.930866 5.233865 11.478237 22.830845 41.471007 69.253966 111.888131
2026-01-25 1.507294 4.558587 10.715781 22.428503 42.317973 72.723200 120.333922
2026-02-01 1.242305 4.151823 10.373131 22.680336 44.183496 77.757510 131.214061
2026-02-08 0.965575 3.624496 9.695312 22.234167 44.827222 80.905894 139.368771
2026-02-15 0.730014 3.113430 8.949096 21.552659 44.982733 83.249072 146.343406
2026-02-22 0.612948 2.913754 8.881321 22.240202 47.693246 89.997128 160.688271
2026-03-01 0.457111 2.520585 8.296698 21.837892 48.453467 93.665461 170.475856
2026-03-08 0.362897 2.287182 8.042382 22.070489 50.362324 99.286288 183.522739
2026-03-15 0.246714 1.885395 7.256022 21.048394 49.821744 100.741134 189.931889
2026-03-22 0.202394 1.764059 7.197873 21.623260 52.358745 107.529860 205.186512
2026-03-29 0.158751 1.610669 7.010493 21.872201 54.260966 113.283749 218.918380
2026-04-05 0.126907 1.493293 6.902424 22.289951 56.515673 119.733127 233.990294
2026-04-12 0.104247 1.410799 6.884842 22.921539 59.235527 127.102350 250.808038
2026-04-19 0.072977 1.225600 6.475175 22.517950 59.778445 130.570418 261.143000
2026-04-26 0.055817 1.124832 6.330025 22.770563 61.706220 136.613818 276.018245
2026-05-03 0.037339 0.971727 5.941943 22.323010 62.090602 139.815324 286.088883